Kebijakan Berbasis Data: Analisis dan Prediksi Penyebaran COVID-19 di Jakarta dengan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)

  • Hansen Wiguna Divisi Analisa Data, Jakarta Smart City, Jakarta, Indonesia
  • Yudhistira Nugraha Fakultas Ilmu Informatika, Universitas Telkom, Bandung, Indonesia
  • Farizah Rizka R Divisi Analisa Data, Jakarta Smart City, Jakarta, Indonesia
  • Ayu Andika Divisi Analisa Data, Jakarta Smart City, Jakarta, Indonesia
  • Juan Intan Kanggrawan Divisi Analisa Data, Jakarta Smart City, Jakarta, Indonesia
  • Alex Lukmanto Suherman Universitas Telkom
DOI: https://doi.org/10.37396/jsc.v3i2.76
Keywords: ARIMA, COVID-19, DKI Jakarta, Kebijakan Publik, Phyton, Tableau, Analisis Prediktif

Abstract

Data dan informasi merupakan bagian penting dalam pertimbangan mengambil keputusan terkait penanganan COVID-19. Data COVID-19 baik demografi maupun agregat di Provinsi DKI Jakarta diolah dan dianalisis untuk memberikan informasi mengenai situasi dan kondisi terkini terkait pandemi COVID-19 di Provinsi DKI Jakarta. Data COVID-19 tersebut juga dimanfaatkan untuk analisis prediktif untuk mengetahui perkiraan jumlah kasus COVID-19 di masa depan. Analisis prediktif yang digunakan dalam artikel ini adalah metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Model ARIMA merupakan salah satu metode forecasting hasil dari perluasan model Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) untuk data yang tidak
stasioner. Analisis dan visualisasi data dilakukan menggunakan program Python dan Tableau dimana hasil analisis prediktif memperlihatkan tren kasus positif harian yang cenderung naik di kurun waktu 14 hari ke depan dari data yang digunakan. Hasil analisis ini dapat digunakan sebagai pertimbangan bagi pemerintah dalam mengambil kebijakan dan intervensi dalam penanganan COVID-19 di Jakarta, dan untuk masyarakat agar tetap melakukan tindakan preventif dalam mencegah kenaikan kasus, seperti mematuhi protokol kesehatan yang sudah ditetapkan oleh Pemerintah.

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Published
2020-08-31
How to Cite
Wiguna, H., Nugraha, Y., Rizka R, F., Andika, A., Kanggrawan, J. I., & Suherman, A. L. (2020). Kebijakan Berbasis Data: Analisis dan Prediksi Penyebaran COVID-19 di Jakarta dengan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Jurnal Sistem Cerdas, 3(2), 74 - 83. https://doi.org/10.37396/jsc.v3i2.76
Issue
Vol. 3 No. 2 (2020): Riset dan Inovasi Sistem Cerdas pada Penanggulangan Wabah Covid-19
Section
Articles

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